Week 13 Fantasy Football Analysis

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Generated: 2025-11-29 14:50

Matchup Status (Week 13)

29.4 - 18.4 vs 4th and pinches

Games Completed (4)

PlayerPosSlotActualESPNLLMvs LLM
Rashee Rice WR WR ✓ 29.4 18.1 25.9 +3.5
Emanuel Wilson (bench) RB BE ✓ 1.4 5.6 8.5 -7.1
Jameson Williams (bench) WR BE ✓ 26.9 11.8 11.5 +15.4
Jordan Love (bench) QB BE ✓ 25.8 15.7 17.7 +8.1

Games Pending (12)

PlayerPosSlotESPNLLM
Jacoby Brissett QB QB 17.2 20.0
Bucky Irving RB RB 11.8 14.0
Tyjae Spears RB RB 9.9 8.0
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR WR 21.9 23.0
Juwan Johnson TE TE 8.7 12.5
Tetairoa McMillan WR RB/WR/TE 13.2 16.5
Jason Myers K K 8.5 10.0
Rams D/ST D/ST D/ST 7.5 9.0
Evan Engram (bench) TE BE 8.1 6.0
Keenan Allen (bench) WR BE 12.0 18.0
Marvin Harrison Jr. (bench) WR BE 13.7 12.0
Omarion Hampton (bench) RB BE 0.0 ---
29.4 Starter Actuals
113.0 Remaining Proj
142.4 Est. Total

Opponent: 4th and pinches

Opponent Games Completed (5)

PlayerPosSlotActualESPNvs ESPN
Jahmyr Gibbs RB RB ✓ 11.6 20.9 -9.3
Rome Odunze WR WR ✓ 2.8 13.5 -10.7
Harrison Butker K K ✓ 4.0 8.7 -4.7
Kareem Hunt (bench) RB BE ✓ 9.0 9.3 -0.3
Romeo Doubs (bench) WR BE ✓ 12.0 11.0 +1.0

Opponent Games Pending (11)

PlayerPosSlotESPN
Baker Mayfield QB QB 15.5
Rico Dowdle RB RB 15.2
Michael Wilson WR WR 11.5
Trey McBride TE TE 17.3
DK Metcalf WR RB/WR/TE 13.3
Jaguars D/ST D/ST D/ST 7.2
Devin Neal (bench) RB BE 11.1
Jordan Addison (bench) WR BE 8.6
Mason Taylor (bench) TE BE 8.5
Quentin Johnston (bench) WR BE 10.0
Shedeur Sanders (bench) QB BE 11.8
18.4 Opp Actuals
80.1 Opp Remaining
98.5 Opp Est. Total
Projected Margin: +43.9 pts

Win Probability: 83.1% | Expected Margin: +31.9 pts

Strong Week 13 matchup against a division rival. Our team has significant projected advantages across multiple positions, particularly at WR where Jaxon Smith-Njigba (historic pace) and Rashee Rice (elite matchup vs Dallas) lead the way.

Thursday/Friday Games Completed:
- Rashee Rice @ DAL: 29.4 pts (5 rec, 97 yds, 2 TD) - BOOM
- Jordan Love @ DET: 25.8 pts - BOOM (on bench)
- Jameson Williams vs GB: 26.9 pts - BOOM (on bench)
- Emanuel Wilson @ DET: 1.4 pts (on bench)

Key Sunday Matchups:
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba continues record-breaking pace vs MIN - WR2 ECR
- Bucky Irving returns from injury vs ARI - QUESTIONABLE, limited snaps expected
- Marvin Harrison Jr. expected to play after appendix surgery - "solid chance" per ESPN
- Tetairoa McMillan emerging as CAR WR1 vs LAR

Recommended Starting Lineup

Position Player Team Opponent ESPN Proj LLM Proj Mode Conf Notes
QB Jacoby Brissett ARI @ TB 17.2 20.0 MODERATE HIGH 18+ pts all 5 starts, TB 21st vs QB
RB Bucky Irving TB vs ARI 11.8 14.0 BUST MEDIUM QUESTIONABLE, coach said "hot hand"
RB Tyjae Spears TEN vs JAX 9.9 8.0 MODERATE LOW JAX improving vs run, TEN underdog
WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA vs MIN 21.9 23.0 MODERATE HIGH WR2 ECR, 96.5 yd prop, rain expected
WR Rashee Rice KC @ DAL 18.1 25.9 BOOM HIGH COMPLETED: 29.4 pts
TE Juwan Johnson NO @ MIA 8.7 12.5 MODERATE MEDIUM TE9 ECR, +320 TD odds
FLEX Tetairoa McMillan CAR vs LAR 13.2 16.5 MODERATE MEDIUM WR19 ECR, LAR 21st vs WR, 65.5 yd prop
K Jason Myers SEA vs MIN 8.5 10.0 MODERATE MEDIUM K2 ECR, rain may limit FG range
D/ST Rams D/ST LAR @ CAR 7.5 9.0 MODERATE HIGH DST3 ECR, CAR weak offense

Total ESPN Projection: 116.8 pts (starters not yet played)
Total LLM Projection: 113.0 pts (starters not yet played)
Already Scored: 29.4 pts (Rashee Rice)

XGBoost Boom/Bust Analysis

QB Decision: Jacoby Brissett (START)

Jacoby Brissett (ARI @ TB, Sun 1:00 PM)
- ESPN Projection (IBM watsonx): 17.2 pts
- LLM Projection (Claude Opus 4.5): 20.0 pts (HIGH confidence)
- Recommendation: START

LLM Reasoning:
- MC density shows MODERATE mode at 20.0 (71% probability) - extremely consistent
- 18+ fantasy points in all 5 games as starter this season
- Tampa Bay 21st vs QB - middling matchup
- MHJ potentially returning = more weapons
- Weather: 81F, clear, 7 mph wind - perfect conditions

Why Not Jordan Love? Already played Thursday (25.8 actual). Brissett was the right call pre-game given TB matchup vs DET's stronger defense.

RB Analysis

Bucky Irving (TB vs ARI, Sun 1:00 PM)

  • ESPN Projection: 11.8 pts
  • LLM Projection: 14.0 pts (MEDIUM confidence)
  • Mode: BUST (42% probability)
  • Recommendation: START (limited options)

LLM Reasoning:
- QUESTIONABLE with foot injury - first game back
- Coach mentioned "hot hand" approach with White/Tucker
- Rushing yards prop only 38.5 (low)
- MC density shows BUST mode at 14.2 most likely
- ARI defense allows rushing yards but limited ceiling in committee

Tyjae Spears (TEN vs JAX, Sun 1:00 PM)

  • ESPN Projection: 9.9 pts
  • LLM Projection: 8.0 pts (LOW confidence)
  • Mode: MODERATE
  • Recommendation: START (no alternatives)

LLM Reasoning:
- RB45 ECR - SIT territory but we lack options
- JAX run defense improved (fewest rush yards since Week 8)
- TEN 7-point underdog = negative game script
- Splits backfield with Tony Pollard
- MC shows MODERATE at 8.0 (71%), ceiling capped

WR Analysis

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA vs MIN, Sun 4:05 PM)

  • ESPN Projection: 21.9 pts
  • LLM Projection: 23.0 pts (HIGH confidence)
  • Mode: MODERATE (81% probability per MC density)
  • Recommendation: MUST START

LLM Reasoning:
- WR2 Expert Consensus Ranking - elite status
- 96.5 receiving yards prop (very high) - Vegas expects big game
- MC density shows MODERATE mode peaks at 22-23 pts, BOOM potential to 37+
- Rain expected (80% chance) may slightly limit ceiling but volume guaranteed
- MIN defense middling vs WR

Tetairoa McMillan (CAR vs LAR, Sun 1:00 PM)

  • ESPN Projection: 13.2 pts
  • LLM Projection: 16.5 pts (MEDIUM confidence)
  • Mode: MODERATE
  • Recommendation: START (FLEX)

LLM Reasoning:
- WR19 ECR - solid starter
- LAR 21st vs WR (improving but still vulnerable)
- 65.5 receiving yards prop, +145 anytime TD
- CAR 10.5-point underdog = garbage time passing volume
- MC shows MODERATE at 16.9 (40%), BUST risk at 50%

Rashee Rice - COMPLETED

  • Actual: 29.4 pts (5 rec, 97 yds, 2 TD)
  • Prior LLM Projection: 25.9 pts
  • Result: BOOM as predicted - outperformed projection by 3.5 pts

TE Analysis

Juwan Johnson (NO @ MIA, Sun 1:00 PM)

  • ESPN Projection: 8.7 pts
  • LLM Projection: 12.5 pts (MEDIUM confidence)
  • Mode: MODERATE
  • Recommendation: START

LLM Reasoning:
- TE9 ECR - solid streaming option
- MC shows MODERATE at 12.6 (63%)
- +320 TD odds (unlikely to score) caps ceiling
- But consistent target share in NO offense
- MIA improving vs TE but still exploitable

Evan Engram - BENCH

  • LLM Projection: 6.0 pts (LOW confidence)
  • DEN run-heavy offense limits TE targets
  • TE24 ECR = SIT recommendation
  • Monday game gives flexibility but Juwan is better play
Position Player Team Status ESPN Proj LLM Proj Notes
QB Jordan Love GB PLAYED 15.7 17.7 Actual: 25.8 pts (BOOM)
WR Marvin Harrison Jr. ARI QUESTIONABLE 13.7 12.0 First game back from surgery, limited snaps
WR Keenan Allen LAC BENCH 12.0 18.0 Playing Sunday 4:25 PM vs LV
WR Jameson Williams DET PLAYED 11.8 11.5 Actual: 26.9 pts (BOOM)
RB Emanuel Wilson GB PLAYED 5.6 8.5 Actual: 1.4 pts
RB Omarion Hampton LAC IR 0.0 0.0 Injury Reserve
TE Evan Engram DEN BENCH 8.1 6.0 TE24 ECR, DEN run-heavy

Monte Carlo Projection Report

Week 13 | Generated: 2025-11-29 14:50

Matchup Summary

53.1%

Win Probability

+1.8
Expected Margin
142.4
My Team (LLM Proj)
132.4
Opponent (Proj)
31.8
Margin Std Dev
133.7
My Team (MC EV)

Margin Distribution (80% Range)

Floor: -38.5 pts | Median: +2.5 pts | Ceiling: +42.7 pts

Margin Distribution

Opponent Bench Substitution Analysis

When opponent starters are injured, the system models likely bench substitutions to provide more accurate win probability estimates. (ESPN projections shown - LLM projections only available for our team)

Position Injured Starter Status ESPN Proj Replacement Repl ESPN
QB Baker Mayfield QUESTIONABLE 16.7 Shedeur Sanders 5.9

Opponent Lineup Scenarios

Win probability weighted across multiple injury scenarios.

Scenario Probability Opp Total EV Win Prob Expected Margin
All injured starters play 85.0% 132.4 53.2% +1.9
All injured starters out 15.0% 125.3 62.2% +9.1

My Team

Key: Click any row to view full histogram. ↑ = P(>15pts) | ↓ = P(<5pts)

Variance: HIGH CV>0.5 (boom/bust) | MED CV>0.3 (moderate) | LOW CV≤0.3 (consistent)

Starters

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Jacoby Brissett QB MED 20.0 0.0-24.3 ↑86% ↓14% Jacoby Brissett
Bucky Irving RB HIGH 14.0 0.0-25.6 ↑51% ↓15% Bucky Irving
Tyjae Spears RB HIGH 8.0 1.6-15.9 ↑14% ↓14% Tyjae Spears
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR LOW 23.0 15.3-36.8 ↑90% ↓0% Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Tetairoa McMillan WR MED 16.5 7.7-18.7 ↑46% ↓0% Tetairoa McMillan
Rashee Rice WR LOW 29.4 11.8-28.8 ↑87% ↓0% Rashee Rice
Juwan Johnson TE HIGH 12.5 2.3-17.1 ↑15% ↓29% Juwan Johnson
Rams D/ST D/ST HIGH 9.0 3.0-19.6 ↑15% ↓16% Rams D/ST
Jason Myers K MED 10.0 6.8-15.5 ↑15% ↓8% Jason Myers

Bench

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Jordan Love QB MED 25.8 8.9-27.2 ↑60% ↓0% Jordan Love
Omarion Hampton RB LOW 0.0 0.0-0.0 ↑0% ↓100% Omarion Hampton
Emanuel Wilson RB HIGH 1.4 1.0-15.3 ↑10% ↓49% Emanuel Wilson
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR HIGH 12.0 0.0-20.4 ↑36% ↓21% Marvin Harrison Jr.
Jameson Williams WR HIGH 26.9 1.1-21.7 ↑51% ↓38% Jameson Williams
Keenan Allen WR HIGH 18.0 5.8-28.6 ↑50% ↓5% Keenan Allen
Evan Engram TE HIGH 6.0 0.0-12.3 ↑1% ↓36% Evan Engram

Opponent

Starters

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Baker Mayfield QB HIGH 13.2 0.0-23.1 ↑51% ↓28% Baker Mayfield
Jahmyr Gibbs RB HIGH 28.6 10.5-40.0 ↑75% ↓0% Jahmyr Gibbs
Rico Dowdle RB HIGH 14.5 3.4-32.2 ↑31% ↓28% Rico Dowdle
DK Metcalf WR MED 12.5 5.4-22.2 ↑27% ↓10% DK Metcalf
Rome Odunze WR HIGH 13.2 2.8-23.5 ↑50% ↓26% Rome Odunze
Michael Wilson WR HIGH 14.9 3.3-31.8 ↑50% ↓24% Michael Wilson
Trey McBride TE MED 19.4 11.5-28.5 ↑64% ↓0% Trey McBride
Jaguars D/ST D/ST HIGH 7.0 0.3-13.3 ↑1% ↓36% Jaguars D/ST
Harrison Butker K MED 9.3 4.8-14.2 ↑8% ↓13% Harrison Butker

Bench

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Shedeur Sanders QB HIGH 6.0 0.5-12.7 ↑1% ↓46% Shedeur Sanders
Kareem Hunt RB HIGH 10.4 3.2-19.0 ↑28% ↓34% Kareem Hunt
Devin Neal RB HIGH 4.8 0.6-10.8 ↑0% ↓52% Devin Neal
Quentin Johnston WR HIGH 12.2 0.0-24.4 ↑32% ↓20% Quentin Johnston
Jordan Addison WR HIGH 11.1 0.0-20.9 ↑21% ↓14% Jordan Addison
Romeo Doubs WR HIGH 11.0 2.8-27.9 ↑15% ↓24% Romeo Doubs
Mason Taylor TE HIGH 8.9 2.0-16.2 ↑14% ↓37% Mason Taylor

Scenario Details

Player Position BOOM MODERATE BUST EV
Bucky Irving RB 21% @ 25.5 21% @ 18.1 42% @ 14.2 15.3
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR 17% @ 37.1 74% @ 22.8 9% @ 13.0 24.3
Tetairoa McMillan WR 10% @ 31.3 40% @ 16.1 50% @ 9.6 14.3
Rashee Rice WR 60% @ 27.9 26% @ 21.4 14% @ 11.3 23.9
Tyjae Spears RB 14% @ 16.3 71% @ 7.6 14% @ 1.3 8.0
Jason Myers K 46% @ 14.4 45% @ 8.8 9% @ 4.0 10.9
Juwan Johnson TE 10% @ 18.2 55% @ 12.0 35% @ 3.5 9.6
Jacoby Brissett QB 14% @ 24.8 71% @ 20.1 14% @ 0.2 17.9
Rams D/ST D/ST 10% @ 21.0 81% @ 9.2 9% @ -2.1 9.4

Vegas Lines Summary

Opponent Analysis

Waiver Wire Notes

Streaming Options If Needed:

  1. Hunter Henry (TE, NE) - 11.2 proj, available on waivers
  2. Browns D/ST - vs SF, 5.1 proj - consider if you want to drop Rams (don't)
  3. Cooper Kupp (WR, SEA) - 8.4 proj, could be desperate add

No Urgent Adds Needed - Current roster should handle Week 13.

Historical Accuracy Context

ESPN Projection Accuracy

projection_accuracy_overall.png projection_accuracy_by_position.png projection_error_distribution.png projection_accuracy_trend.png league_team_mae_ranking.png league_bias_heatmap.png league_positional_scatter.png

XGBoost Boom/Bust Calibration

xgb_boom_calibration.png xgb_bust_calibration.png xgb_position_calibration.png xgb_weekly_brier_trend.png xgb_feature_importance.png

LLM vs ESPN Comparison

llm_vs_espn_scatter_comparison.png llm_weekly_winners.png llm_cumulative_improvement.png llm_position_advantage.png llm_confidence_correlation.png

Data Quality & Discrepancies

This tab logs discrepancies detected during the weekly analysis process, including:

  • Subagent JSON failures: When subagents return prose instead of structured JSON
  • Incorrect data: False claims (e.g., wrong bye weeks, wrong team affiliations)
  • Injury status conflicts: When XGBoost/ESPN conflict with verified sources
  • Projection mismatches: ESPN projecting points for OUT players

Week 13 Discrepancy Log

TypeSourceClaimActualResolutionVerified By
Matchup Correction Vegas Lines Subagent Original game list had incorrect matchups (SEA vs NYJ, etc.) Corrected to actual Week 13 matchups: MIN @ SEA, ARI @ TB, KC @ DAL, GB @ DET Used corrected matchups from Vegas subagent web searches NFL.com schedule, ESPN API roster data
Subagent Partial Data Defense Matchups Subagent Expected complete 1-32 rankings for all opponents Returned partial data with many 'Unk' values - only ~30% complete Used available ranks (WSH 30th vs RB, LV 28th vs WR, CLE 2nd vs RB) and defaults for missing FantasyPros points allowed referenced in subagent output
Injury Status Conflict XGBoost Boom/Bust Model Bucky Irving has 54.5% bust probability Irving returning from 8-week injury, expected ~36% snap share per Coach Bowles Verified return status via Buccaneers.com - playing but limited snaps WebSearch - Buccaneers official site, Pro Football Network
Projection Mismatch ESPN API (IBM watsonx) Marvin Harrison Jr. projected 13.7 points MHJ practiced LIMITED Wed/Thu after Nov 10 appendicitis surgery - still questionable Set is_confirmed_out=true, LLM projection = 0.0 (conservative) Pro Football Network, AZ Cardinals official site
Weather Alert Weather Subagent Normal conditions expected for all games Denver has HIGH WIND (21 mph) - significant passing game impact Downgraded Evan Engram confidence to LOW, noted in weekly context AccuWeather Denver forecast

Log timestamp: 2025-11-29T14:50:28.050931